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Francis Joseph would do? Obviously it is Francis Joseph’s own business to take care of himself and to decide, whether he will continue to be the tool of Germany or not. Some politicians were even harassed by the question, what title the Austrian Emperor would have!
I look at all these questions of New Europe from a liberal and democratic standpoint. The Austrian Emperor, if he chooses, can continue to be Emperor of Austria, as the Byzantine Emperors kept their Imperial title even after their dominion was more reduced than Austria would be.
And supposing that German Austria were to become in one or other way a member of the German Empire. In that case Germany would have at her disposal only 10 extra millions, whereas Austria, if only reduced but not dismembered, would strengthen Germany twice or three times as much. The very idea, that after the war Austria will be inclined to go against Germany, is simply näive. Only one thing can be expected: Catholic Austria, if included in Germany, would naturally weaken Protestant Prussia.
The same remark holds good for Hungary. The Magyars will be forced to renounce their anti-Slav policy, if once the Slavs are free and under the protection of the Allies. But, of course, the plan of the Allies pre-supposes their victory and the defeat of the enemy, who until now has been victorious.
33.—How Germany’s defeat and retreat would take place.
Very often this victory is belittled. Our papers, publicists and politicians try to keep up their spirit by explaining away the enemy’s achievements. This old-fashioned method strikes me as less effective than its adherents suppose. It is always dangerous to underrate the enemy, truth is, that the Germans have won a great victory, and that it will be a heavy task to defeat them. How, then, is that defeat to be accomplished?
The first phase of the German defeat would be accomplished, when they will have to retire from the occupied territories; after that the second phase would follow, the invasion of the Allies into Germany, Austria, Turkey and Bulgaria. If the first task is difficult the second will be even more so. Especially the Germans will fight very desperately to prevent the occupation of their territory. In the East and in the West the frontier is already fortified by trenches, and every possible means of defence is provided. The Germans will fight fiercely to the very last, and will not be demoralised by having to retire to their own soil. The Austrian troops will be weaker in that respect, and doubtless the same holds good with the Bulgarians and Turks. Yet it must not be forgotten that the Austrians have also fortified and prepared some parts of their territory; the passes into Hungary from Galicia are fortified, the territory of Cracow and Moravia, Vienna and Budapest are fortified also.
Germany, if pressed by the Allies, would withdraw her forces from Austria and the Balkans, would abandon her Allies and defend her territory with all available forces. The fighting line would be considerably shortened; the resistance would be stronger. It will be very difficult in the West to cross the Rhine; in the East is the ominous East Prussian lake country, while both the Silesian coal mines and the collieries and the industrial centres of Rhenish Prussia will be defended very fiercely. The Germans expect that France would be satisfied with the occupation of Alsace-Lorraine, and that she would not sacrifice her troops to invade the Transrhenish territories. The occupation of Berlin would be, of course, a hard piece of strategical work. Personally, I had expected the Allies to penetrate from the Balkans towards Budapest and Vienna; I expected that the Serbians, backed by the Allies,
