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Whether Germany is short of cotton, metals, &c., is a question of fact. But there is a good deal of evidence that the neutrals provided Germany with necessaries. For instance, on a single day of last summer Germany got 100 wagons of copper through Switzerland, and to this even French agents are said to have contributed. Now they will have the copper mines in Serbia. The Germans make full use of the industrial establishments of the occupied territories in Belgium, France, Poland: they use the coal mines of France, &c.
(6) The question of the blockade and suppressing German maritime commerce and navigation is too complicated to be discussed here fully; there are English industrial and commercial authorities who do not believe that Germany has been effectively blockaded. The trade of her neutral neighbours with the United States has gone up too much for it to be credible that the Germans did not get the greater part of this trade (in some instances a rise of over 300 per cent, above pre-war figures).
The Germans will perhaps lose many business connections, their commerce will be damaged; but on the other hand, they are forced to show restraint, to give up all luxuries and a good deal of comfort. Meanwhile, the logic of the public does not seek the cause of this enforced economy and parsimony in their Government and the Emperor, but in their enemies, especially the English.
To some extent the present economic situation in Germany is the anticipation of the future, when nations, at least the big nations, will be self-sufficing and independent of import or export. At any rate the British Blockade does not hurt Germany’s strategical position, at least not for the last period of the war-though perhaps its effects may be more serious in the future.
(7) A word must be said about the climate and nature of Russia. The papers are full of expectations that Winter will be an ally of the Russians. Even some Russian papers write the same. That is a mistake. Cold in winter is not nearly as bad as moisture and rain-the frozen ground actually facilitates communications which are greatly impeded by rains. General Russky declared in an interview very rightly, that “Winter would seriously modify the war conditions, because the rivers, lakes and marshes being frozen, the defensive will become more difficult, while the offensive will require more numerous effectives.” I had reliable news from Germany last, summer, that the Germans were preparing fur coats and making provisions for the winter campaign.
Nor should it be forgotten that the winter campaign tells very badly on some of the allied troops.
12.—The Austrian Army compared with the German Army.
The Austro-Hungarian Army is not as good and effective as the German Army.
(1) Austria before and since the annexation of Bosnia-Herzegovina prepared for war, and even mobilized (1908–09, 1912–13), yet her army was not prepared when the war broke out though the tension between her and Russia necessitated careful preparation. Officially the Government and the military authorities proclaimed more than once, that the Austrian Army alone was able to face the Russians and beat them into the bargain. It soon became manifest that the Army was very deficient; the leading was bad, and the commissariat was specially defective; the sanitary department was wretched (scanty equipment of the field hospitals, lack of surgical instruments, x-ray apparatus, &c.)
Even the armament of the troops was inadequate, no provision having been made for the use of heavy guns, and the artillery on the whole was weak. The Russians had an overwhelming artillery, and that was the amazing surprise, for both in Austria and in Germany the Russian army was looked upon as of no strategical value.
